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╔═══════════╗ ║ SHAREWARE ║ ╚═══════════╝ This program is distributed as a Shareware product. The Copyright is retained by the author. The program may be freely copied, placed on any bulletin board system, or otherwise freely distributed. All Shareware distributors may charge their standard rates. If you find the Pro Football Linemaker to be practical and intend to use it, you are asked to become a registered owner by sending a $17 contribution to: American Precision Instruments 1530 W. Ranch Road San Bernardino, CA 924079 * BBS: (714) 880-8030 Registered owners will immediately be sent a hard copy of "A Winning Season Using the Pro Football Linemaker". You will also receive a disk with a current game statistics file and a password that will allow you to download weekly statistic databases off a bulletin board system (BBS) via your modem (this is not necessary, you may enter the weekly statistics yourself using your local newspaper). The disk containing the latest game statistics file will prevent you from having to do extensive data entry in an attempt to catch up (if the current season has begun). Then you may remain current by either entering the weekly statistics yourself, or downloading them via the PFL BBS. * Our area is scheduled to receive an area code change on November 14, 1992 at which time our number will change to (909) 880-8030. ╔═════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ What is the Pro Football Linemaker? ║ ╚═════════════════════════════════════╝ The Pro Football Linemaker is a tool to help you better forecast the outcome of upcoming Pro Football games. The Pro Football Linemaker is a database of the most often used statistics associated with the game. The Pro Football Linemaker is also a program to help you maintain, store, manipulate, and understand the statistics in the database, so you can make the most informed choice possible for any upcoming game. And finally, the Pro Football Linemaker is a bulletin board system (BBS) that allows exchanges between users and allows downloading of current statistics files. Downloading the database files saves users from having to enter the large amounts of weekly statistics used to forecast the lines. It is not necessary, however, to download the weekly statistics database. The Pro Football Linemaker was designed for the user to be able to enter weekly stats available in most national and local newspapers. ╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ What is the Pro Football Linemaker Bulletin Board System? ║ ╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝ The PFL BBS is a bulletin board system available to all football fans during the off season. During the off season, the BBS is open and all fans may use the PFL BBS to download the latest version of the Pro Football Linemaker, download previous years' statistics, communicate with other fans through the BBS's mail feature, upload/download files and programs for/from other users, ask questions about the program and database, etc. During the season, the system is closed and only registered and subscribed users may use the BBS. This is because up-to-date statistic database files are available for downloading. Downloading these files saves registered and subscribed users the drudgery of entering the large amount of statistics necessary to forecast the lines. See Appendix C for detailed instructions on using the PFL BBS. ╔═══════════════════════════════╗ ║ Registration and Subscription ║ ╚═══════════════════════════════╝ The registration fee for the Pro Football Linemaker is $17. The price of registration includes a hard copy of "A Winning Season Using the Pro Football Linemaker", the latest version of the Pro Football Linemaker (the latest version is also available off the PFL BBS or from your Shareware Dealer), the most current week's database (if during a regular season), and a free, current subscription to the PFL BBS. PFL BBS subscription rates thereafter are only $10 per season. You will also receive the NEW PLF Utilities program that allows screen viewing of your PFL data bases. The program provides quick screen reference to current or past stats. Categories include Game, Team, and Season. A very handy program for keeping current with the Teams and for referencing when selecting overlays. PRO FOOTBALL LINEMAKER 2.1 REGISTRATION/SUBSCRIPTION RENEWAL FORM SEND TO: American Precision Instruments 1530 West Ranch Road San Bernardino, CA 92407 |-------------------------------------------------------------------| |TODAY'S DATE: | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| |CHECK or MONEY ORDER AMOUNT: $ | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | NAME: | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| |ADDRESS: | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| |ADDRESS: | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| |ADDRESS: | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| | CITY: | STATE: | ZIP: | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| |TELEPHONE: ( ) | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| | WHERE DID YOU OBTAIN YOUR COPY OF PRO FOOTBALL LINEMAKER: | | | | | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| | | |CHECK ONE: | | | | | | I have enclosed $17.00 to register my copy of the Pro | | ------- Football Linemaker. Please send my hard copy of "A | | Winning Season using the Pro Football Linemaker", a | | disk containing the latest possible database of the | | regular season (last seasons database if not currently | | in a season), the latest version of PFL (if 2.1 is not | | the latest version), and a current season subscription | | to the PFL BBS (Pro Football Linemaker Bulletin Board | | System). I wish to apply my free one-season PFL BBS | | subscription towards the season beginning in: | | | | August 199 | | ------------------------------ | | (enter this year or next year) | | | | I am already a registered owner of the Pro Football | | ------- Linemaker. Enclosed is the $10 subscription fee to | | the PFL BBS. Please rush me my password. The season | | I wish to subscribe to is for the season beginning in: | | | | August 199 | | ------------------------------ | | (enter this year or next year) | |-------------------------------------------------------------------| Registration packages and season passwords will be sent out immediately upon receipt of registration or subscription fee. ╔════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ ║ ║ A WINNING SEASON USING THE ║ ║ PRO FOOTBALL LINEMAKER ║ ║ ║ ╚════════════════════════════════════╝ TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction............................................. 1 Chapter One -- The User's Manual Getting Started........................................... 3 System Requirements.................................... 3 Floppy Disk Systems.................................... 3 Hard Disk Systems...................................... 3 Batch Files............................................ 3 Menus..................................................... 4 Escape Key................................................ 4 Disk Files................................................ 4 Color Select.............................................. 5 Updating the Game Statistics File......................... 5 Game Statistics Data Files............................. 6 The Statistics Input Screen............................ 6 Saving Game Statistic Data Files to Disk............... 7 Statistic Categories................................... 8 Calculate Spreads......................................... 8 Projected Statistics and Projected Spreads Screen...... 9 Projected Statistics Screen............................ 9 Projected Spreads Screen...............................10 Set Calculation Parameters................................10 Chapter Two - The Game Within The Game The Law of the Land.......................................12 The Sports Book...........................................13 The Board.................................................13 The Bet and the Payoff....................................14 The Games.................................................14 The Cards.................................................15 The Line..................................................15 The Juice.................................................15 The Serious Player........................................17 Shopping the Lines........................................20 Chapter Three - The Strategies Theory of Operation.......................................21 Spread From Scores Analysis............................22 Level One..............................................25 Level Two..............................................25 Level Three............................................25 The Final Results......................................26 Spread From Yardage Analysis...........................26 Spread From First Down Analysis........................26 Spread From Time of Possession.........................27 Overall Spread and Parameters..........................27 The Projected Statistical Categories......................27 Open Category..........................................31 Adjusting the Overall Spread..............................32 Updating and Adjusting the Parameters.....................32 Points Per Yard........................................32 Points Per First Down..................................33 Points Per Time of Possession..........................33 Adjusting Parameters...................................33 CALCPARA Program.......................................34 PRINTPFL Program.......................................35 Putting It All Together -- Developing Your Spread.........35 Other Influencers.........................................36 Betting Strategies........................................37 Appendix A -- Sports Book Cards Appendix B -- Version 1.0/2.1 Changes Appendix C -- The Pro Football Linemaker BBS Copyright (c) 1990 American Precision Instruments ╔══════════════╗ ║ INTRODUCTION ║ ╚══════════════╝ At one time, each week, I spent endless hours putting together statistics and then analyzing those statistics in order to obtain an edge over players who were not as well informed. Now that the personal computer has become a reality, I can enter those same statistics in less than an hour and can analyze them almost immediately. You too can have this same advantage, and if you use the PFL BBS, you can have access to current information within a couple of minutes. Before you bet another dime on a football game, I encourage you to read "A Winning Season Using the Pro Football Linemaker". There are many things that players should think about before placing a bet. This book, especially Chapter Two, "The Game Within the Game", will bring many of those things to light. If you are an experienced player, you will already be familiar with most of these concepts. However, it probably would not hurt to at least review the Chapter. Chapter One is "The User's Manual" which explains how to set up an get started using the Pro Football Linemaker. Chapter Two, "The Game Within the Game", gives the reader a strong background into the game of betting on football. Chapter Three, "The Strategies", brings it all together. How to use the Pro Football Linemaker and your strategies for picking the best overlays. As you read the book, "A Winning Season Using the Pro Football Linemaker", it will become clear that the PFL is a tool (possibly your most important tool). The PFL does not "PICK" which team you should bet on, that is your decision. What the PFL does is to manipulate and analyze the data and statistics from previous games to help you make rational decisions on upcoming games. No two players should make the same bets during a season and no two players should come out with the same win/lose ratio (unless it is strictly a coincidence). Each player will set his/her own standards for what determines a good overlay, and then bet accordingly. I first released the Pro Football Linemaker in time for the 1988 season. Since that time, I have received bundles of mail from users. Topics ranging from office pools to the Oregon Lottery. Many users wanted to compare their results with mine and others. Other users failed to keep their database current and needed help "catching up", or simply want an easier way to update their database. For these reasons, I decided to provide users with the PFL BBS. The bulletin board first went on line during the in 1990 season. However, it was available only to users who specifically suggested or requested downloading capabilities. It worked so well that I have now decided to make it available to everyone. If you have any questions, stories, or want to relate/compare how well (or poor) you did last year or last - 1 - week, then why not relay that information to everyone who reads the PFL BBS. That is what the PFL BBS is for, so feel free to use it. I am particularly interested in hearing about different parameters developed by users. I am also interested in the different methods users came up with to use the "open category", and how well they worked. Additionally, how many points did you add and subtract for the "other influencers" to develop your final line? How did you develop those points? Where did you draw your lines for what you considered an overlay good enough to place a bet? We punch in a lot of data, and like everyone else, we make mistakes. Also, the newspapers sometimes list erroneous stats. If you find an error in our data, please quickly notify us via the PFL BBS so we can correct it. Good Luck, Lloyd J. Wilson American Precision Instruments - 2 - ╔═══════════════════════════════════╗ ║ CHAPTER ONE - THE USER'S MANUAL ║ ╚═══════════════════════════════════╝ ===================== GETTING STARTED ===================== System Requirements ------------------- The Pro Football Linemaker requires and IBM PC, XT, AT, or compatible, at least 384K of RAM, and PC-DOS or MS-DOS 2.0 or higher. Floppy Disk Systems ------------------- To run the Pro Football Linemaker on a floppy-based system, copy all files on the Pro Football Linemaker distribution disk to a boot disk (a disk formatted with the /s option). After booting up with this disk, enter `PFL` (for Pro Football Linemaker) to start the program. Hard Disk Systems ----------------- Create a new directory called "FOOTBALL". Copy all files on the distribution disk into \FOOTBALL. Log into this directory and enter `PFL` to start the program. This sequence would be as follows: C:>MD \FOOTBALL C:>COPY A:*.* \FOOTBALL C:>CD \FOOTBALL C:\FOOTBALL>PFL Batch Files ----------- A batch file will allow you to enter the program without changing directories. The following example of a batch file named PFL.BAT (located in the root directory or a directory for which a path has been established) will let you start the Pro Football Linemaker by entering `PFL`: - 3 - CD\FOOTBALL PFL \CD =========== MENUS =========== Use the [UP], [DOWN], [RIGHT], and [LEFT] arrow keys to move through the menus. When the selection you want is highlighted press the [ENTER] key. ================ ESCAPE KEY ================ The primary key to the operation of the program is the [ESCAPE] key. The [ESCAPE] key will always back you out to the main menu. ================ DISK FILES ================ The following files are included on your Pro Football Linemaker disk: 1) PFL.EXE - the "Pro Football Linemaker" program file. 2) STATS.PFL - the current season's game statistics file (or last season if not currently in a season). 3) PFL.PAR - the calculation parameters file. 4) SEASONXX.PFL - Any free disk space will be filled with past season game statistics files; for example, SEASON89.PFL would be the 1988 regular seasons statistics file. Past season files are also available (starting in 1988) from the BBS. 5) PFL.DOC - This documentation file, "A Winning Season Using the Pro Football Linemaker". The registered disk excludes this file (hard copy is sent) to free up disk space for past season database files. 6) FORM.DOC - A copy of the registration/subscription renewal form. Enter: PRINT FORM.DOC at the DOS prompt. Note: The above files and more are also available via the PFL BBS. - 4 - ================== COLOR SELECT ================== The Menu's [Color] selection takes you to the color select option. If you have a monochrome monitor, you will receive the message: -- Monochrome Monitor -- No adjustment to the screen output is possible and you will return to the Menu. If your monitor is capable of displaying colors (or shades), then you will enter the COLOR SELECT program. Instructions for changing the colors are displayed on your monitor. You may select colors for three categories; letters, background, and boxes. The letters category controls the color of the letters and symbols on your monitor, the background category controls the background color, and boxes category controls the color of the highlighted areas on the monitor. As you select colors, the screen will reflect those selections. This immediate feedback allows you to browse through the colors and experiment with different color combinations. Be careful not to assign the same color to the letters and the background or you won't be able to see the letters. After you have selected a screen that pleases you, press the [Escape] key to return to the Menu. Your color selections will now become the default colors and will be displayed until the next time they are changed. ======================================= UPDATING THE GAME STATISTICS FILE ======================================= Before we go on it is necessary to make one thing clear. It takes two, three, or maybe even four weeks into the season before enough statistics are available to project results. It depends on the teams you are comparing and the schedules they have already played. After one week you should get no projections, after two you might get a few, after three you will probably get most projections, and after four weeks you should get projections for all inquiries. Each week you will need to enter the statistic from that week's games into your game statistics data file. These statistics are reported in most national and local newspapers. The input screen has been designed to allow you to quickly enter the stats. It should take less than 20 minutes per week to enter the stats from the 14 games. If the thought of entering all these statistics each week does not appeal to you, then you may download the current statistics file from the PFL BBS (see appendix C for information). - 5 - Game Statistic Data Files ------------------------- If currently into the regular season, your Pro Football Linemaker Version 2.1 disk will hold the default statistics file "STATS.PFL". This file contains the current regular season's statistics (will not include preseason stats). If you are not into a season, you will want to create a new default "STATS.PFL" file for the next season. At the start-up screen you are instructed to: PRESS ENTER OR NAME STATS FILE TO ACCESS: If you press the [ENTER] key, you will load the "STATS.PFL" file. If you type in a filename (or drive:\path\filename), then that file will be loaded. If you type in the name of a file that does not exist, the program will question you to determine if you are creating a new file or if an incorrect file name was given. A disk must contain approximately 75K free bytes to create and save a new file. So you may need to eliminate an old statistics file from your disk to free up enough space. You may store old files by renaming them and then using the STATS.PFL file as the current working file (the default file). For example, you might rename old files as follows: RENAME STATS.PFL REGSEASN.89 Or you can ignore the default capabilities and enter the name of your current file each time you start up. The Statistics Input Screen --------------------------- After selecting the "Update Game Statistics File" option from the main menu, select two teams from the team menu. If this is the first time these teams have met this season, you will go straight to the input screen. If the teams have played before, you will first be prompted to which game's statistics screen (Game #1 or Game #2) you wish access to. The screen has been designed to be very user friendly and at the same time allow for quick entry of data. The following keys have the indicated purpose for the input screen: 1) Number keys - enters corresponding numbers 2) Left arrow - moves to first box on current line 3) Right arrow - moves to last box on current line 4) Up arrow - moves to the first box on next line up 5) Down arrow - moves to first box on next line down 6) Enter key - moves to next box 7) Backspace key - erases current box 8) Space key - erases current space and/or moves one space right - 6 - Additionally, when a box is full, it automatically moves to the next box. It is important to note that it does not matter where in the box a number is placed. This enhances data entry speed immensely. For example, if you were entering the number 5 in a box that is designed to accept up to three numbers, you could enter any of the following: 1) |5 | 2) | 5 | 3) | 5| 4) |05 | 5) | 05| 6) |005| The program will read and record a 5 for all the above entries. It also makes no difference how the numbers were changed, erased, overwritten, or how you move from one box to another. The point we are trying to make is for maximum speed, don't worry about where the entry is, how it looks, how it lines up, or how it got there -- just get it in the box and the program will take it from there. Once you have your data filled in, either press the [F2] function key or move down to the ACCEPT STATS line at the bottom of the screen and press the [ENTER] key. At this point the statistics you entered are accepted. If at any time you decide you do not want to accept the statistics you have entered, press the [ESCAPE] key. You may change any data simply by selecting the two teams and the appropriate game. You original data entry screen will be displayed. Simply make any changes you desire and move to the ACCEPT STATS line and press the [ENTER] key. You may delete the entire game's statistics by entering zeros (or blanks) in the two teams final scores boxes and accepting the stats. Once you have accepted your statistics for the game, control will return to the menu waiting for you to select the next two teams. As always, you can return to the Main Menu by pressing the [ESCAPE] key. Saving Game Statistics Data Files to Disk ----------------------------------------- Once you have entered all the statistics, or made any desired changes, you must save the new data to you disk file. To do this, select save from the main menu. The program will also remember if you have entered new statistics or made any changes and have not saved. Then, if you try to exit without saving, you will be reminded that you have not saved and given another opportunity chance to do so. The size of an empty file is about 70K. It will expand slightly with each week's games. At the end of the season the file will be about 75K. Because of this continual expansion, you must make sure you have plenty of spare room on your disk. If you do try to expand past the room on your disk, the program will allow you to insert another disk and save your file. Always play it save, however, by making a backup of your file after each week's entries. - 7 - Statistic Categories -------------------- 1) Final Score - enter the final scores of the game. 2) First Downs - enter the first downs made by the teams. 3) Rushing Yards - enter the total rushing yards. 4) Passing Yards - enter the total passing yards. 5) Times Sacked - enter the number of times the team was sacked. 6) Fumbles With Lost Possession - enter the number of fumbles where possession was lost. 7) Time of Possession - enter the minutes and seconds the team had possession. The program automatically rounds to the nearest minute. So to speed entry you may round the seconds and enter just the minutes - leaving the seconds box blank. The program also proportionally adjusts overtime to one hour total for both teams. 8) Open Category - the "open category" allows you to select a statistical area you believe to be important. The program analyses the data entered for this category and provides you with projected results between any two teams you select. The current file season's file contains the number of fumbles made by each team (don't confuse with the fumbles with lost possession category). Other possible uses could be turnovers, pass attempts, pass completions, rushes, etc. If any statistics are unavailable to you, just leave the that category blank when entering your statistics. On rare occasions a team may score negative yardage. The program uses only forward yardage and will not allow you to enter a negative number. In these rare occasions, enter a zero for no forward yardage. ======================= CALCULATE SPREADS ======================= When you select "CALCULATE SPREADS" from the menu, you will first be asked: DO YOU WANT A PRINTOUT OF THE SPREAD CALCULATIONS? If you select [Yes] you will receive a detailed printout showing how the spreads were calculated. Refer to Chapter Three for formulas and complete explanations of the printouts. - 8 - If you select [No], you will still be given an opportunity to receive a printout of the final projections and spreads once they have been calculate and placed on your monitor. To receive a copy of the projections and spreads you simply press the [P] key once the final results have been calculated and shown on your screen. Pressing any other key returns you to the "Select Two Teams:" menu. At this time, you may select the next two teams you want to calculate spreads for, or press the [ESCAPE] key to return to the main menu. You may notice that the first time through, the calculation process takes longer than with subsequent times. This is because the first time through there is more data to calculate. After the first time it is not necessary for the program to recalculate all data. If any changes are made to your data files, however, all data will again be recalculated. Projected Statistics and Projected Spreads Screen ------------------------------------------------- The following is an explanation of the final results screen and a brief explanation on how the projections and spreads are calculated. For a full explanation refer to Chapter Three. The Projected Statistics and Projected Spreads Screen are the final results of the programs calculations. If you chose to receive a printout, you will receive additional data on how the final projections were calculated. Whether or not you receive a printout, the calculation process will always end with this screen. Projected Statistics Screen --------------------------- The Project Statistics Screen projects the expected results of the game between the two teams selected. You receive projected passing, rushing, and play (rushing + passing) yardages, projected first downs, projected lost fumbles, projected sacks made, project time of possession, and the projected results from your own selected category (open category). The RESULT FROM SCORES ANALYSIS is the only category on the Projected Statistics Screen that is not a projection. The scores you see are the result of the analysis and not a projection of expected scores. However, the difference between these two numbers is the projected spread from scores analysis. As can be seen with a full printout, the projected spread is taken from an analysis of scores at three levels: Level One - Level One analysis is based on scores obtained if the two teams being projected have played each other before. Level Two - Level Two analysis is based on scores obtained when the two teams being projected have both played the same third team. Scores from each such occurrence are used. - 9 - Level Three - Level Three analysis is based on scores obtained when the two teams being projected have each played another team, and those two teams have played each other. Scores from each such occurrence are used. All other projected categories are the actual expected results of the game. As an example, we will use projected passing yardage, however, this explanation could just as easily relate to the times sacked, open, or any other category. First the program calculates the average passing yardage of all teams and all games. The program then calculates how many passing yards each of the two teams averages in a game. This average is then adjusted by the caliber of teams they have played (in other words, are the teams they have played better or worse at defending against passing than the average team). The same process is then used to compute how well each team is expected to defend against the other teams passing offense. The result is how many yards passing each team is expected to achieve against the other team and how many passing yards each team is expected to give up. An average of the two projections (expected offense of one team and expected defense of the other team) gives us the projected passing yardage. This process is accomplished for both teams giving us the comparable results. Projected Spreads Screen ------------------------ The Pro Football Linemaker produces four separate spreads based on past scores analysis, projected play yardage analysis, projected first downs analysis, and projected time of possession analysis. Additionally, an overall spread, based on a weighted average of all four spreads, is provided. The parameters used to develop the spreads are based on the results of the 1987 and 1988 regular seasons. These parameters can be changed to reflect the desires of the user. ================================ SET CALCULATION PARAMETERS ================================ A full discussion on (1) how to develop your own calculation parameters, (2) how to use the utility program to assist in developing your parameters, and (3) an explanation of exactly how the parameters are used to calculate the spreads is included in Chapter Three. The calculation parameters shown for yardage, first downs, and time of possession were developed using 1987 and 1988 regular season statistics. They are based on points scored per play yard, first down, and time of possession in past games. These parameters change over time and should be kept current. The percent weights provide a weighted average between scores, total yardage, first downs, and time of possession. The weighted averages are used to calculate the final line. - 10 - To change a parameter select the letter corresponding to the parameter you want to change--then enter the new parameter when prompted. The weighted averages must add to 100%. If they do not, the program will automatically do it for you (the numbers on the screen will be replace proportionately with numbers adding to 100). You may use the <h.> selection to see how the weights selected proportionally convert to 100%. The parameters are stored in a file named "PFL.PAR". You must save any changes made in order for the new parameters to be used. Use the "Save Parameters" off the menu (selection i.). If you do not save, the program will ask you if you wish to save before returning to the Main Menu. A [No] selection will restore your old parameters. - 11 - ╔══════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ CHAPTER TWO - THE GAME WITHIN THE GAME ║ ╚══════════════════════════════════════════╝ Sports betting is big business. From small office pools to multi-million dollar Nevada sports books, bettors are trying to beat the odds. Sports are the great American pastime, and betting on sports is as much a part of that pastime as the potato chips, cold beer, and armchairs that go with it. Nevada sports books take in well over $1 billion annually. But that is only the cream. Sports betting outside Nevada is very very big. Estimates range to over $50 billion a year. That's more than any annual state budget. That's a lot of money--and a lot of action. You can take a little of this vast fortune for your own. But first you must understand the game. No, I don't mean the game of football. I mean the other game--the game of betting on football. If you don't understand this game within the game, all your knowledge of football is not going to help you. ===================== LAW OF THE LAND ===================== All regular bettors quickly become prisoners to the laws of statistics. If you ignore these laws, you will surely fall victim to them. Statistics are as much part of the laws of nature as the physical universe. As sure as the sun will rise, there are six chances in thirty-six that the roll of a single pair of dice will result in a seven. My own college statistics professor so effectively demonstrated this, that I have not forgotten to this day. As a homework assignment, he had half the students flip a coin 100 times and the other half roll a die 100 times and each record the outcomes. My own coin tossing distribution fell immediately in line with the .5 probability for heads and tails, and then stayed there for the entire 100 tosses. The following day, after everyone had reported back, there was not one single incident of a significant deviation from the expected outcomes for either group. While at the time I probably thought "big deal", later I realized it was a big deal. Every time I think about taking the "long shot" or "beating the odds" I must remember that simple exercise. To try to beat the odds is asking for sure disaster. You must play within the odds and keep those odds in your favor or they will drain your pockets as regular as rent. It's not that the long shot is always a bad bet, as long as the payoff is comparable to the odds (expected outcome), then the bet is statistically acceptable. However, what usually happens is that the house figures that long shot players are not as apt to worry about the odds (which is probably true). They then adjust the odds - 12 - ridiculously in their favor and the long shot player still plays. If you don't believe me, look at the state lotteries. What is the probability of catching 6 out of 49 in the California State Lotto game. Statisticians call this 49 choose 6, and the formula is: X! 49! 49 X 48 X 47 X 46 X 45 X 44 ---------- = ------------- = ---------------------------- n! (X-n)! 6! X (49-6)! 6 X 5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 13,983,816 = ---------- 1 Again, it's not that the odds of hitting the jackpot are only 1 in 14 million that makes this game unattractive, it's that only half of the money is returned to the players. The payoff is not comparable to the expected outcome. Strictly a game for losers. If you play this game, you are going to lose (unless your the one in 14 million). However, it's an easy and inexpensive way to satisfy one's appetite for the long shot and it helps keep my taxes down. ===================== THE SPORTS BOOK ===================== Casino Sports Books come in every shape and size. From huge lavish fully automated rooms, with giant television screens, electronic light-emitting diode boards, and preprinted computer readable betting tickets--to dingy back rooms with a few television sets and a chalkboard. And everything in- between. In most sports books you can order drinks, annoy KENO runners, play slots and other electronic coin gobblers, or just kick back and watch a game or a race. =============== THE BOARD =============== The "Board" is where the upcoming games are listed. For a typical Pro Football game, a listing might look like this: San Francisco - 6 10:00 42 Chicago The 10:00 is the time of kickoff (and also the time by which you will need to place your bet). The bottom listed team is the home team- - 13 - -Chicago in this example. San Francisco is favored here, by six points. If you want to use the correct lingo, you would refer to San Francisco as the "favorite" and Chicago as the "underdog". The 42 is the total for the over/under bet. ============================ THE BET and THE PAYOFF ============================ In the previous San Francisco and Chicago example, you can select San Francisco and "lay" six points or you may select Chicago and "take" six points. If you bet San Francisco, the 49ers must win the game by MORE than six points. If you bet Chicago, you will win if the Bears win, or if San Francisco wins by less than six points. If you bet Chicago, and San Francisco wins by exactly six points, you "push", and your bet will be returned to you. =============== THE GAMES =============== The different types of bets a sports book can come up with are almost as endless as the number of fancy drinks you can order at their bar. Hey Bartender, I'll have a Screaming Pink Russian with a twist--hold the guava juice. Some are fun, some are stupid, and most are poor bets, which we will discuss later. For now lets look at some of the more popular games and make sure we understand what is involved. Parlays - A parlay is simply two or more games combined for a single bet. The number of games you select determines the payoff odds. Be careful now, this is not like KENO or lotteries--you must catch all of your selections to win your parlay. Casino sports books generally distribute parlay cards to facilitate making your selections. Teasers - Teasers are similar to parlays except the house gives or takes additional points (usually six) to make your bet more attractive. However, the payoff odds are adjusted downward to allow for the stronger bet. Teaser cards are also available in most sports books. Over/Under - Over/Under is a bet on the total combination of the final score. The number is shown on the board and you must decide if the total final score of both teams will be above or below that number. The over/under bet is also usually available as a parley option on the parlay cards. Future Bets - You can bet who you think will win the Super Bowl before the season even begins or anytime during the season. The odds change from week to week. - 14 - =============== THE CARDS =============== Most Sports Books provide "Cards" to mark your bets. Turn to the examples located in Appendix A. Notice that each selection is numbered. Simply mark the boxes corresponding to your picks and turn in the card at the window. If you are not playing the parleys, the cards are not necessary. ============== THE LINE ============== Why is there a line? Why don't we just bet on who we think will win the game? Wouldn't that be much simpler? Let's suppose it is 1988, and you are thumbing through Saturday's paper and you see there is going to be a game between Buffalo (whose current standing is 11 wins and 2 losses) and Tampa Bay (whose standing is 3 wins and 10 losses). You say to yourself, "Hey, looks like Buffalo might be a good bet, think I'll put down ten." Now find someone to bet with. The only bet you'll get is in Tampa Bay, in a bar, with a loud-mouth, die-hard Buccaneers' fan, whose had way to much to drink. For every 100 potential bettors who wanted to put down ten on Buffalo, you would have been lucky to find 3 fools who would have taken that bet. Now, lets say you were willing to give Tampa Bay some points just for the sake of finding someone to bet with. How many points? Somewhere there is a magic number where there will be an even number of dollars bet on each team. This is the line--the spread. If the line is not receiving an even distribution of bets, it will be adjusted to do so. This is because sports books (and bookies) don't really want to gamble. They strive to balance their bets so they are assured of receiving their full percentage for each game. What do I mean--their percentage? Let's look at this more closely. Before we go on, are there any questions? Yes, you in the back waving your hands--what was the score? Oh yes, I almost forgot. Tampa Bay beat Buffalo, 10 to 5. =============== THE JUICE =============== Say that you want to win $100 on an otherwise dull Sunday afternoon. You go to your sports book or bookie who informs you that you must put up $110 if you want to win $100. Your bookie will also take another $110 from someone who wants to bet against the team you are betting for. If you win, your bookie gives you back your $110 and $100 winnings. He keeps the other $10 for himself. This is how a bookie earns his living, and how the sports books paint their walls. As you - 15 - can see, they really aren't gambling, they are bringing together other people who want to gamble, and then taking 4.5 percent off the top as a commission--so to speak. This 4.5 percent is called "The Juice". This "Juice" means you have to win more often that half the time in order to break even. What's that? You don't think that's fair? Consider some other types of gambling. Most state lotteries take 50 percent. Horse racing (depending on your state) takes about 17 percent. Realtors take 6 percent. Maybe 4.5 percent isn't that bad after all. Let's look at this "Juice" a little closer,however, just to make sure it doesn't get the best of us. Here is a easy way to prove the juice. Say you bet $110. Remember, the sports book will also take in another $110 from a player who bets on the opposing team. So, the casino or the bookie takes in $220 dollars. At the end of the game, the winner is returned his original bet of $110 and 10/11ths of that bet as his payoff (10/11 X $110 = $100): amount kept by house -------------------- = percent kept by house total amount bet $220 - $110 - $100 $10 -------------------- = ----- = .045 $220 $220 Almost universally, the payoff odds for a straight football bet are 11/10. You win $10 for every $11 you bet: BET WIN $1.10 $1.00 $2.20 $2.00 $5.50 $5.00 $11.00 $10.00 $22.00 $20.00 The two formulas to determine amount bet and amount won are: Amount of winnings = Amount bet X 0.9090909090 Amount bet = Amount of winnings X 1.1 Now you can use these formulas to quickly determine your slice of the pie. If you bet $20 on a game, and win, you would perform the following calculation to determine what you should be returned: - 16 - ($20 X .9090909090) $18.18 Original Bet + 20.00 -------- Amount Due $38.18 If you want to know how much you would have to bet to win $150 dollars, you would perform the following calculation: $150 X 1.1 = $165.00 ======================== THE SERIOUS PLAYER ======================== If you go to Las Vegas twice a year, the track once, bet on the World Series and Super Bowl office pools each year, and purchase a lottery ticket if the jackpot goes above $20 million, then skip this section, it may ruin your fun. I assume, however, that you would not be reading this if you are only an occasional bettor. And this being the case, I suggest you fully understand this section. It is much more important how you bet, than who you bet. Unless your betting with your neighbor, or in an office pool, you are going to be subject to a house take, the juice. Actually, many office pools donate a portion of the take to some type of charitable activity, this is another form of a house take, even if it is the office Christmas Party. In the casinos as well as with bookies, the house take is always there, it is often well hidden, but always there. Sometimes the house simply has a better chance of winning the game than the player, such as when playing straight craps and most of the popular casino card games. Other times, the house pays off less than the players chance of winning, such as in roulette. Then statistically, after enough games are played, the house can be assured of ending up with a take equal to their statistical advantage. As previously mentioned, for the standard 11/10 football wager, the house simply attempts to get an even distribution of bets on a game and then take their 4.5 percent before paying off the winners. Not a bad take, considering they really aren't taking much of a risk and just holding the money. When a bank holds your money, they pay you! For every $1 million dollars a casino takes in on a straight football bet, they return $955,000 to the players and take $45,000 to the bank. And it gets worse, much worse. Whenever people wager you will always have winners and losers, right? Wrong! Whenever people wager, you will have the losers, the house take, and possibly some winners. It only takes two football games to produce an outcome of 100% losers. Consider the following scenario of two players and two games. For game #1, one player bets $110 on Team A and one bets $110 on Team B. Team A wins the game. Next week, the - 17 - same player bets $110 on Team A and the other player again bets $110 on Team B. This week Team B wins the game. The following chart shows the standing for the two players after the second game: Team A Player Team B Player Game #1 + $100 - $110 Game #2 - $110 + $100 ---------- --------- Standing Per - $10 - $10 Player So after only two games, both players can be losers. But, where is the rest of the money? The house has it. This example shows that any player who wins only half his bets is going to end up a loser. Then how many games must you win? With the standard 11/10 football bet you will need to win 52.38 percent of your bets to break even. Do you remember your algebra? Solve for X to determine percent of wins required to break even, where X equals percent of wins and 1-X equals percent of losses: 10X = 11(1-X) 10X = 11-11X 11X + 10X = 11 21X = 11 X = 11/21 X = .5238 Many people shrug this off, thinking, "so what, what's two percent". But the serious player knows that two percent is significant. He may consider a two percent profit during an entire season, a good season. The serious player also knows these are some of the best odds he will ever find. Two percent profit! You've got to be kidding? It is pretty well accepted that 60 percent is about the best one can continuously do betting against football lines. And this figure is reserved for the very best. Anything above this is generally considered normal variations in the frequency of outcomes-luck. I am not trying to discourage you, just setting the scene for the next discussion on parleys, teasers, football cards, and the other games. The odds on these types of games range from bad to worse. Let's look at them. Let's choose the smallest parley possible, two games. What are the odds of winning? We will assume that the lines are accurate enough to make the chance of either team winning to be even in both games. You - 18 - have a one in four (.25) probability of winning but only a 13 to 5 (2.6 to 1) payoff. Let's see what the juice is by following an example. In this example we will wager four, $10, two game parley bets. According to probability, we will win one out of the four: Bet Returned Game #1 $10 - 0 - Game #2 $10 - 0 - Game #3 $10 - 0 - Game #4 $10 $36 (13/5 * 10) + $10 (initial bet) ------- ------- $40 $36 40-36 ----- = .10 = 10 percent juice 40 The house took in $40 and returned $36. Ten percent juice! Why that's horrible! Yes, that is horrible and that is the best one. For all the other parleys and the teasers the odds are even worse. They are strictly for fun. Strictly for the occasional bettor. Anybody who plays these games on any type of regular basis will quickly become a victim of the laws of statistics. Ten percent juice is simply not acceptable--especially when you can get 4.5 at the same window! Can you see a formula emerging. A formula for determining the juice may be helpful for determining the juice for games not specifically mentioned within these covers: juice = 1 - (probability of win) (payoff odds + 1) Test it with the previous example: juice = 1 - (.25) (2.6 + 1) juice = 1 - .9 juice = .10 Let's look at the rest of the parleys. Turn to Appendix A and look at the reverse side of a Circus Circus parley card. It shows the game rules and the payoffs. - 19 - Let's take a closer look at those odds: Game Win Odds Payoff Juice 2 for 2 1 in 4 2.6 for 1 10% 3 for 3 1 in 8 6 for 1 12.5% 4 for 4 1 in 16 11 for 1 25% 5 for 5 1 in 32 20 for 1 34.4% 6 for 6 1 in 64 40 for 1 35.9% 7 for 7 1 in 128 75 for 1 40.6% 8 for 8 1 in 256 125 for 1 50.8% 9 for 9 1 in 512 250 for 1 51% 10 for 10 1 in 1024 500 for 1 51.1% Look once again at the rules on the Circus Circus card. Notice rule #9. So, on top of paying off with some of the worst odds you can get, if you do hit the long shot, you might have to share it. Need I say more? Do yourself and your money a favor and keep away from the parleys and teasers. The statistical deck is stacked against you. The odds are much better playing black jack, roulette, or craps. I lost a lot of money before I figured this out. Now you know why so many independent football card entrepreneurs out there. A somewhat shady business, but with a statistically guaranteed profit. ======================== SHOPPING THE LINES ======================== An advantage of playing in Nevada is that you can shop around for the best lines. The sports books generally post the pro football lines on Monday or Tuesday. This is an excellent time to find what you might consider a mistake in the line. If your right, others will probably also see it, and within hours it will adjust in the direction that compensates for the mistake. As the week goes on the line firms up. By Saturday, line adjustments are becoming rare. During the week, however, it is not uncommon to see line differences of half-point, point, or more at the different casinos. Value shoppers (such as yourself) usually force these spreads together by game time. Look at the two cards from the Mirage and Circus Circus for the 16th week of the 1989 season (Appendix A - in hard copy only). I picked them both up on Thursday, December 21st. As you can see, 12 of the 14 pro games have at least a half point difference. Two have a point-and -a-half difference in the line. This is a significant difference! End of discussion. The point is made. Shop around for the best line. - 20 - ╔══════════════════════════════════╗ ║ CHAPTER THREE - THE STRATEGIES ║ ╚══════════════════════════════════╝ Before the 1983 season I kept no records, I played all types of football betting games, without regard for the odds, and I had no real idea how I was doing--or what I was doing. I would simply look at the board and from what I saw I would pick which lines I thought were the most inaccurate (known as "overlays"). If this sounds familiar to you, you may be losing a lot more than you think you are. In 1982 I lost heavy. I know this because of my dwindling bank balance and not because I kept any sort of records. In 1983 I did keep an accurate record of my cash flow. At the end of the '83' season I knew how much I had lost, but I did not know how this related to my accuracy, or inaccuracy, in picking winners. After that season, I decided if I was going to bet on football, I had better understand what I was doing. During the off season I dug out my old college statistics book, blew off the dust, and got reacquainted with probabilities as they relate to football (No you don't need a college statistics course, just make sure you understand the concepts in Chapter Two). It didn't take long to figure out what my problem was. I was being robbed by the parlays and teasers. How could I have been so stupid not to have seen this before? You cannot play parlays and teasers, on any type of regular basis, without losing. The payoff odds are simply not comparable to the probability of winning. Way too much juice. If you play these games, you may have a brief encounter with the up side, but it will always work back to the middle, where you will ultimately lose. The next year I stopped playing parlays and started winning. Not a whole lot, but at least I was in the black. It was also in 1984 that I started developing the concepts that I would eventually incorporated into the "Pro Football Linemaker". Now I see a definite payoff for my years of pursuit. Each season, my goal is to surpass my last years win/loss percentage. I do this by fine tuning my lines and betting practices, just as you can. Enough of this, let's discuss how the "Pro Football Linemaker" works. ========================= THEORY OF OPERATION ========================= The "Pro Football Linemaker" is not a system. It is a program and database that stores results of past games and then logically projects results of upcoming games based on past performance. There is nothing magical or secret about how it works. From the information I am about to give you, you could use a stubby pencil and come up with the same projections. However, the computer can make these projections in seconds, compared to endless hours without it--I know, I used to spend those hours. - 21 - The Pro Football Linemaker will project the results of games between any two professional teams. These projections are given in the form of five different point spreads and eight projected statistical categories. Each of these spreads and categories are shown on the final "Projected Statistics" and "Projected Spreads" screen. How each of these projected spreads and statistics are calculated will be reviewed in detail. Examples given will parallel the type of data you might expect to receive from the program's optional printout of spread calculations. The Pro Football Linemaker projects five point spreads: (a) Spread from scores analysis, (b) Spread from play yardage analysis, (c) Spread from first down analysis, (d) Spread from time of possession analysis, and (e) an overall (weighted) spread of the other four categories. The spread from scores analysis is the only of the five spreads that does not use the projected statistics to arrive at the results. For this reason, the spread from scores analysis will be discussed separately from the other spreads and projected statistics. Spread from Scores Analysis --------------------------- Past scores are the most powerful and accurate indicator of how a team will perform in upcoming games. Nothing else even comes close. Most people realize and use this subconsciously even if they have never really consciously thought about it. The first thing that comes to anyone's mind, win comparing two teams, is the past performance of the two teams. Often however, the two teams we are comparing have not played each other during the current season. How then can we compare teams who have yet to face off? We can do this indirectly by comparing the two teams performance against the same third team. For example, suppose Dallas will be playing Miami, and both Dallas and Miami had played Tampa Bay. We can project the outcome of the Dallas and Miami game by looking at how well each played against Tampa Bay. I call such a relationship a "Level Two". Of course a "Level One" relationship would also exist if Dallas and Miami had played each other earlier in the season. Can we go further? Yes, early in the season there will not be many Level One and Level Two relationships. But we can still compare teams by calculating "Level Three" relationships. A level three relationship exists when the two comparison teams have each played a different third team and those two third teams have played each other. For example, Cincinnati and Dallas are the two comparison teams where Cincinnati had played Cleveland and Dallas had played Green Bay. A Level Three relationship exists because Green Bay and Cleveland had played each other. This is where the computer really starts becoming a lifesaver and where using it gives you a big advantage over the uninformed player. - 22 - Let's go through a complete example. Here is the actual optional printout of scores analysis (level 1, 2, & 3)for an end of the '89' regular season game between Atlanta and LA Rams (a playoff between these two teams did not actually take place): SCORES ANALYSIS - ATLANTA vs LA RAMS ********** LEVEL ONE - GAME ONE ********** ATLANTA - 21 LA RAMS - 31 ********** LEVEL ONE - GAME TWO ********** ATLANTA - 14 LA RAMS - 26 RESULT LEVEL ONE = LA RAMS BY 11.0 POINTS ********** LEVEL TWO ********* ATLANTA LA RAMS ----------------------------------- DALLAS 6.00 4.00 BUFFALO 2.00 -3.00 INDIANAPOLIS -4.00 14.00 NEW ORLEANS -7.00 19.00 NEW ORLEANS -9.00 3.00 PHOENIX -14.00 23.00 GREEN BAY -2.00 3.00 SAN FRANCISCO -42.00 1.00 SAN FRANCISCO -13.00 -3.00 MINNESOTA -26.00 -2.00 NEW ENGLAND 1.00 4.00 NY JETS -20.00 24.00 ----------------------------------- TOTAL -10.67 4.08 RESULTS LEVEL TWO = LA RAMS BY 14.75 POINTS ********** LEVEL THREE ********** 24-31 ATLANTA <=======> DETROIT 27-47 <=======> 10-20 27-17 LA RAMS <=======> CHICAGO LA RAMS by 3.50 points - 23 - ********** LEVEL THREE ********** 30-31 ATLANTA <=======> WASHINGTON 38-14 <=======> 10-20 LA RAMS <=======> CHICAGO ATLANTA by 28.5 points ********** LEVEL THREE ********** 24-31 ATLANTA <=======> DETROIT 14-24 <=======> 31-10 LA RAMS <=======> NY GIANTS LA RAMS by 24.00 points ********** LEVEL THREE ********** 30-31 ATLANTA <=======> WASHINGTON 24-27 <=======> 31-10 17-20 LA RAMS <=======> NY GIANTS LA RAMS by 14.00 points RESULTS LEVEL THREE = LA RAMS BY 3.25 POINTS ********** TOTAL LEVEL ONE, LEVEL TWO, AND LEVEL THREE ********** ATLANTA LA RAMS ---------------------------------------------- LEVEL ONE 17.50 28.50 LEVEL TWO -10.67 4.08 LEVEL THREE -1.25 2.00 ---------------------------------------------- AVERAGE 1.86 11.53 SPREAD FROM SCORES ANALYSIS = LA RAMS OVER ATLANTA BY 9.67 POINTS - 24 - Level One --------- The Level One result of LA by 11.0 points is simply the average of the difference between the scores: Game #1 = LA Rams by 10 points (31 minus 21) Game #2 = LA Rams by 12 points (26 minus 14) 10 points + 12 points Average = --------------------- = 11 points 2 games Level Two --------- Level Two results are obtained through an analysis of the final scores when the two comparison teams have both played the same third team. All games meeting this criteria are averaged into the final Level Two results. For example, in our the LA Ram vs Atlanta example, both teams played Dallas. Atlanta beat Dallas by 6 points and LA beat Dallas by 4 points. So 6 points were averaged into the results for Atlanta and 4 points for LA. Negative numbers indicate losses. The program then totals the spreads and divides by the number of games. The difference between the two totals (averages), provides the spread from the Level Two analysis. Level Three ----------- A Level Three relationship exists when the two comparison teams have each played a different third team and those two third teams have played each other. For Atlanta and the Rams in '89', there were four such relationships. There will generally be less Level Three relationships for two teams in the same conference, but more Level One and Level Two relationships. Looking at the first Level Three relationship in our example, Atlanta and LA Rams are the two comparison teams where Atlanta had played Detroit and LA had played Chicago. A Level Three relationship exists because Detroit and Chicago had played each other. When two sets of scores are shown (both on top and bottom), as in the example, this indicates that two games were played. For the final sets of scores, the first score is associated with the team above (Detroit in the example) and the second score with the team below (Chicago). Atlanta receives a -7 for their game with Detroit and a -5 for Detroit's two games with Chicago (averaged -20 + 10 / 2 = -5). Atlanta's average for the relationship is -6 (-7 + -5 / 2 = -6). LA receives a -10 for their game with Chicago and a +5 for Chicago's wins over Detroit. This gives LA a -2.5 average (-10 + 5 / 2 = -2.5), and LA a spread advantage of 3.5 over Atlanta for this comparison. - 25 - The final results for Level Three is the average point spread of all four Level Three relationships: Atlanta LA Rams Spread ------- ------- ------ #1 -6.0 -2.5 3.5 (LA) #2 11.5 -17.0 28.5 (Atlanta) #3 -8.5 15.5 24.0 (LA) #4 -2.0 12.0 14.0 (LA) ------- ------- ------ Total -5.0 8.0 13.0 (LA) Divide by 4 ------- ------- ------ Average -1.25 2.0 3.25 (LA) The Final Results ----------------- The final results from the scores spread is an equal weighted average of all three levels. If there was no data available from any one level, then the average is an equal weight for the remaining two levels or the only level for which data was available. Remember, the bottom line shown on the optional printout's chart is not a total of the three levels--it is the average. A comment is need here about the final results. As you can see the program changes scores into point spreads. The final results are then the expected point spreads and not expected scores. Do not confuse this point and attempt to use the point spread as an over/under (total points) indicator. This is not the case with the projected statistical categories, however. As you will see in the next section, yardages, first downs, fumbles, time of possession, etc., are all the expected (projected) outcomes of the game. Spread from Yardage Analysis ---------------------------- This spread is calculated using the projections of the passing and rushing yardages (see discussion on yardage projections in this section). Once the program has projected the passing and rushing yardages (play yardages) the spread is projected by applying the actual 1987 and 1988 points per yard to the total projected yardage. Spread from First Down Analysis ------------------------------- This spread is calculated just as the yardage spread except the first down projections are used rather than the yardage projections. - 26 - Spread from Time of Possession ------------------------------ This spread is calculated just as the yardage spread except the time of possession projections are used rather than the yardage projections. Overall Spread and Parameters ----------------------------- The ability to quickly change the overall spread weighted average and to change the parameters, and then analysis the results these adjustments have on the projected outcome of the game, is what makes the Pro Football Linemaker such a powerful tool. Parameters included with the Pro Football Linemaker were developed from 1987 and 1988 regular season statistics. See "Updating and Adjusting the Parameters" in this chapter for a full discussion on developing and using parameters. ========================================== THE PROJECTED STATISTICAL CATEGORIES ========================================== There are eight statistical categories that are projected by the Pro Football Linemaker program. Three of the projected categories are also used to project independent spreads: 1) Passing Yardage 2) Rushing Yardage 3) Play Yardage (Passing and Rushing Yardage) 4) First Downs 5) Time of Possession 6) Times Sacked 7) Fumbles with Lost Possession 8) Open Category These statistical projections are the actual expected outcome of the game based on many calculations performed by the program. Each category is calculated using the exact same methods and formulas. I will go through the formulas and methods used for projecting these statistics using passing yardage as an example, but I could replace passing yardage with first downs, fumbles, sacks, or any other category and the discussion would be identical. 1) First the program goes through the entire database of every game played and determines a per game average for each of the categories. These averages are both (a) displayed with the final results on the monitor and (b) printed as "Overall Averages" in the optional printout. Staying with the '89' season Atlanta vs LA Rams example, the printout would appear as follows: - 27 - ********** OVERALL AVERAGES ********** PASSING YARDAGE: 210.80 RUSHING YARDAGE: 115.17 PASSING & RUSHING: 325.97 FIRST DOWNS: 18.91 OPEN CATEGORY: 1.87 FUMBLES - LOST: 0.94 TIMES SACKED: 2.47 TIME OF POSSESSION: 30.00 Because this printout was requested after all data for the '89' season had been inputted, these are the actual averages for the '89' regular season. Any two teams you select will give you these same overall averages. 2) Next the program goes through the entire database and determines each team's per game average for each category. 3) If you do not leave the program or make adjustments to the database, the program will only perform the above two steps for the first two comparison teams you select. Subsequent inquiries will use the same data, so it will not be necessary for the program to recalculate. This shortens your calculation waiting period. 4) Next the program must find out how much passing yardage the first comparison team can expect to make. To do this, the program must figure (a) how much passing yardage it expects the first comparison team to make (offense), and (b) how much passing yardage it expects the second comparison team to give up (defense). Using our Atlanta and LA example: a) First the program will find how much passing yardage the Atlanta's offense is expected to make. To do this, the program cannot simply take the average of Atlanta's past passing yardage--this would not give us an accurate picture. Suppose the program used the average passing yardage for Atlanta and they had been playing teams with poor defenses. Then Atlanta's offensive average would be overstated and the first time they played a team that had a good defense, our projections would crumble like a house of cards. So to obtain an accurate projection, we must adjust the average passing yardage of Atlanta to allow for the quality of teams they have been playing. The following formula is used to make this adjustment: Atlanta's Overall average passing yards Atlanta's expected = ------------------------------- X average passing Average passing yardage allowed passing yardage by Atlanta's opposing teams yardage If the teams that opposed Atlanta in the '89' season were doing better than average defensively (were allowing less than the average passing yardage against them), then the "Average passing yardage allowed by - 28 - Atlanta's opposing teams" (denominator in the above formula) will be smaller than the "Overall average passing yards" (numerator). This will adjust Atlanta's expected passing yardage against the average team upward proportionately. However, as we will see, the teams Atlanta played in '89' played less than average defensively against the pass. A printout of the '89' season statistics (using PRINTPFL)gives us the following defensive passing yardage for the teams that played Atlanta: Average Defensive Team Passing Yardage ------ ----------------- Dallas 223 Buffalo 201 LA Rams 252 Detroit 245 Indianapolis 221 New Orleans 241 3559 yards Phoenix 223 ---------- = 222 yards Green Bay 209 16 games San Francisco 202 Minnesota 154 New England 229 Washington 223 NY Jets 241 LA Rams 252 New Orleans 241 San Francisco 202 --------- 3559 yards As you can see, in the 1989 season, the teams that Atlanta played allowed an average passing yardage of 222 yards to be scored against them. Comparing this to the average of 210 passing yards per team for the '89' season, we can see that the teams Atlanta had been playing were not quite as good as average at preventing passing yardage. So Atlanta's expected passing yardage must be decreased proportionately to compensate. In our example, this formula is shown under the heading of "ATLANTA OFFENSE" in the optional printout: ATLANTA OFFENSE EXPECTED PASSING YARDAGE: 210 DIVIDED BY 222 TIMES 218 = 206 210 --- X 218 = 206 yards 222 Note: All figures here are rounded for the sake of the discussion. The program does not round and may consequently give slightly different results. - 29 - So in conclusion, the program adjusts Atlanta's expected passing yardage down by about five percent, or 12 points, to compensate for the fact that the teams Atlanta had been playing were not as good as the average team at preventing their opponents to score passing yardage. b) Now the program has the yardage it expects the Atlanta's offense to make, however, that is still not the whole picture. This must be adjusted by how well the second comparison team, the LA Rams, can defend against the passing yard (or how many passing yards we expect the Rams to allow). Again, the program cannot simply take an average of the yards given up--that would fail to allow for the quality of the offenses that the second comparison team had been playing. Here is the formula the program uses to compensate for the quality of the teams the LA Rams has played and find the expected passing yardage the LA Rams will allow against Atlanta: LA Rams' Overall average passing yards LA Rams' expected = ------------------------------ X average passing yards Average passing yards obtained passing yards allowed by the LA Rams' opposing teams allowed If during the season, the teams LA had played, were better than average at obtaining passing yardage, then LA's average passing yardage allowed must be adjusted down to compensate for the better than average teams they had been playing. If the teams LA had played were less than average, then LA's average passing yardage allowed will be understated and must be adjusted up. In our example, we will see that LA played teams who were better than average at obtaining passing yardage: Average Defensive Team Passing Yardage ------ ----------------- Atlanta 218 Dallas 180 Chicago 194 Buffalo 224 NY Giants 193 Indianapolis 185 3476 yards Orleans 211 ---------- = 217 yards Phoenix 205 16 games Green Bay 253 San Francisco 269 Minnesota 200 New England 232 NY Jets 214 Atlanta 218 New Orleans 211 San Francisco 269 ------- 3476 yards - 30 - So, the teams LA played during 1989 were better than average (217 passing yards compared to 210 average) at obtaining passing yardage. Because LA had been playing better than average teams, their expected passing yardage allowed will be adjusted down to compensate. In other words, we would not expect LA to give up as much passing yardage to Atlanta just because they had been playing teams that were offensively better than average. The calculation is made on the optional printout under the heading "LA RAMS DEFENSE": LA RAMS DEFENSE EXPECTED PASSING YARDAGE: 210 DIVIDED BY 217 TIMES 252 = 244 210 --- X 252 = 244 yards 217 5) Now the program has both how many passing yards we expect Atlanta to make (206), and how many we expect the Rams to give up (244). Both have been adjusted to allow for the quality of teams they have been playing. 6) The program now averages the two yardages to come up with the projected yardage of the first comparison team. This process is shown in the optional printout under "PROJECTED STATISTICS": ATLANTA PROJECTED STATISTICS PASSING YARDAGE: (206 PLUS 244) DIVIDED BY TWO = 225 So we now have one projected statistic. We project that Atlanta will obtain 225 passing yards against the LA Rams. Of course this would be just for a game that was played at the end of the '89' season. 7) For the Atlanta projection to be of any use, we need to have a LA Rams projection to compare. So the program now repeats this exact same sequence to obtain the LA Rams' projected passing yardage. 8) The program then repeats this process for each category, rushing yardage, first downs, fumbles, time of possession, open, etc. Open Category ------------- The open category can be filled with any statistics that you find important (you may also leave the category empty). The data you enter will be used to project your open category just as the other categories are projected. This is possible because the program projects all categories in exactly the same way (as previously explained). - 31 - If you are interested in obtaining the "total score" for an over/under bet, you may use the open category for this purpose. Simply enter the scores in the open category during data entry, then your projections will give you an expected score for each team in the open category. A caution here on over/under bets. Many, many things influence the total score of the game. Some people believe that the condition of turf, type of turf, and weather have more influence on total score than do past scores. If you have never played over/under, do not be fooled by its deceiving simplistic appearance. Your projections will give you an excellent start, but I suggest you play a mock season to really get a feel for the types of things that affect the total scores. Because all categories are processed in exactly the same way, it is also possible to change existing categories. For example, suppose you would rather have "Number of Turnovers" than "Fumbles with Lost Possession". As long as you enter the number of turnovers in the data file, instead of the fumbles, the program will project the number of turnovers expected. Printouts will still read "Fumbles - Lost", but you will know that this actually represents the turnovers expected. Note: This will not work with the Time of Possession category, as the program converts minutes to seconds during the process. ================================== ADJUSTING THE OVERALL SPREAD ================================== The overall spread is a weighted average of all four individual spreads. The overall spread can, and should, be adjusted and used to indicate overlays. The time into the season should be considered. At the beginning of the season, not enough scores exist to produce accurate projections. However, yardage, first downs, and time of possession immediately show indications of teams' performances. Later into the season, the scores spread becomes a powerful method of predicting outcome. =========================================== UPDATING AND ADJUSTING THE PARAMETERS =========================================== The ability to quickly change the parameters, and then analysis the results these adjustments have on the projected outcome of the game, is one of the features that makes the Pro Football Linemaker such a powerful tool. Parameters included with the Pro Football Linemaker were developed from the 1987 and 1988 regular season statistics. Points Per Yard --------------- Points per yard were taken from the average points and average yards scored in the 1987 and 1988 regular seasons: - 32 - total points scored ------------------- = points per yard total play yards 1987: 9071/145,926 = .062 points per yard 1988: 9049/146,915 = .062 points per yard 1987 & 1988: .062+.062/2 = .062 points per yard Points Per First Down --------------------- Points per first down were taken from the average points and average first downs scored in the 1987 and 1988 regular seasons: total points scored ------------------- = points per first down total first downs 1987: 9071/8149 = 1.113 points per first down 1988: 9049/8453 = 1.071 points per first down 1987 & 1988: 1.113+1.071/2 = 1.092 points per first down Points Per Time of Possession ----------------------------- Points per time of possession were taken from the average points and average time of possession scored in the 1987 and 1988 regular seasons: average points per game ----------------------- = points per second 3600 seconds per game 1987: 43.2/3600 = .012 points per second 1988: 40.4/3600 = .011 points per second 1987 & 1988: .012+.011/2 = .011 points per second Adjusting Parameters -------------------- As you can see from the previous discussion, the parameters do not change much from season to season. However, if you are using the parameters from 1987 and 1988 statistics, you should check them periodically (using the CALCPARA program). They will change over time. Rule changes will have the greatest effect on these parameters. You do not have to use the parameters included with the Pro Football Linemaker. The program was specifically developed so users could - 33 - formulate and use their own parameters. To use the program to its full potential, you need to think of the program as a tool, or shell, to help you develop your decisions. There are many different and logical methods for developing parameters. Consider trying some of the following methods for developing your own parameters: 1) Statistical sampling methods. 2) Develop the parameters using the actual statistics from a previous game between the two opposing teams. 3) Develop separate statistics and parameters for each team. Then use an average of only the two teams being compared as parameters. 4) Develop parameters comparing statistic spreads to point spreads. For example: average point spread ---------------------- = points per yard average yardage spread This could be done as an overall average or for individual games. 5) A method I particularly like is to use the odds printed in your paper for thecurrent week's games. Adjust your parameters until you can get the most number of games to come out as close to that week's spreads as possible. After you get as many as close as you can, the ones that are furthest from the paper's odds are your overlays. This takes a lot of trial and error work, but the payoff is worth it (you get faster at it with a little practice). By using this method, you are benefiting from the expertise of the odds makers. There are many ways to develop parameters. Be sure to keep records on how well your own methods perform. CALCPARA Program ---------------- To use this program simply select CalcPARA off the main menu. The program will give you the year-to-date statistics for the games in your currently loaded database. For an example, here is what the monitor will display if you select the 1988 regular season data file: NUMBER OF GAMES CALCULATED: 224 TOTAL GAMES PLAYED: 224 TOTAL POINTS SCORED: 9049 TOTAL PASSING YARDS: 90446 TOTAL RUSHING YARDS: 56469 TOTAL PLAY YARDS: 146915 TOTAL FIRST DOWNS: 8453 - 34 - AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME: 40.397 POINTS PER YARD: 0.062 POINTS PER FIRST DOWN: 1.071 POINTS PER TIME OF POSSESSION: 0.011 This printout provides you with the parameters for the data file selected, additionally, the statistics from which those parameters were developed are provided. You now have the 1989 regular season stats (REGSEASN.89 file). Why don't you run them against the CALCPARA and see what the 1989 season looked like--you may want to adjust your parameters! PRINTPFL Program ---------------- The PRINTPFL program prints out any statistics data file. You must have a printer for the program to operate. All information included in the data file is printed out in a organized format. You can use these printouts to check the accuracy of your data files. The printouts are also useful for detailed examinations of the teams' standings and statistics. ====================================================== PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER - DEVELOPING YOUR SPREAD ====================================================== Okay, now you have a solid background on the basics of football betting and the statistical world that controls it. You know the types of bets that provide the best payoffs, and how often you must win to come out ahead. You know what the "Pro Football Linemaker" does and how it helps you keep track of the teams' performances. And most important, you have years of experience evaluating Pro Football. Let's put it all together. I'm going to go through the generally method I use for coming up with my overlays. This is not locked in concrete. You are now armed with the same tools that I have. You should constantly be looking for ways to improve on my methods and your methods. 1) Obtain the most current odds available. (If more than one set of odds are available, obtain those also.) 2) Using PRINTPFL, printout the current database. 3) Run a spread calculation for each of the upcoming 14 games. Get a one-page printout of the final results for each of the 14 games. 4) Comparing the odds makers spreads to the overall spread, rank the 14 games from best overlay to worst. - 35 - 5) Eliminate any games that show a negative for any of the four spreads. This is a potentially dangerous situation and usually indicates that the selected underdog has not been scoring points at its true potential or the favorite has been scoring above its potential. Either way, a risky bet. (In rare cases I have allowed a negative in the first down or time-of-possession spread.) 6) This next step is tricky and depends on how you have your parameters set up. Find a natural breaking point in your overlays. Hopefully, there will be two or three out of line by several points more than the others. These are your potential bets. 7) Use the "Pro Football Linemaker" to obtain a full printout for each of the overlays selected in step 6. 8) For each team and each game (selected in step 6), review both the database printout and the full calculation printouts. Were there enough games to base the scores analysis on? Does anything appear out of the ordinary? Are the teams being reviewed playing consistently or do they often win when not expected to and lose when expected to win? Use the database printout to make sure you are familiar with the teams you may be betting on. 9) Now is where your experience enters. At this point, I start with only the spread from scores analysis (if there are enough scores to fill comfortable with). From this spread I add and subtract points based on considerations such as: a) the projections from each of the eight categories b) home field advantage c) injuries d) place in standings e) grass or turf f) mental attitudes g) team on a roll h) weather These points are added and subtracted based on your experience and the projection provided by the program. 10) After adjusting, you must then decide if your overlay is still large enough to warrant a bet. Hopefully, after your further analysis, the overlay appears as even a better bet. If it goes the other way, I usually drop it. Don't become discouraged if you don't find a good overlay and then bet on a bad one. There have been many weeks where I did not bet, and many more that I only had one bet. - 36 - ======================= OTHER INFLUENCERS ======================= Many forces influence football lines. Consider these ideas and suggestions: 1) Don't let emotions interfere with your decisions. If you can't bet against your favorite team, don't bet for it. Emotional betting is a major contributing cause of favorable betting lines. Use emotional betting to your advantage. 2) People tend to over bet winners. The lines may often reflect this. 3) The underdog beats the spread more often. 4) Lines may be different in different localities. You may be better off in the West betting on East Coast teams and better off in the East betting on the West Coast teams. 5) Stay informed. There are many excellent books on football. Several annual publications provide good comparison statistics of the teams. Weekly newspapers, handicap sheets, and magazines all provide essential data for the serious player. ======================== BETTING STRATEGIES ======================== There are some basic, common since gambling rules and procedures that should be considered no matter what type of game you bet on. 1) Only bet what you can afford to lose. 2) In gambling, how much to bet is as much a part of the game as who to bet. However, it is often overlooked as irrelevant to the outcome. While the size of the bet will not affect the outcome of the game, it will affect the size of your bank roll. Making larger bets when the odds of winning are greater and smaller bets when the odds are less is the backbone of most logical betting systems. If you do not have a system, you might want to read a couple of books on gambling. If not, you are better off trying to bet consistently rather than randomly changing your bet. First, determine what you can afford to lose, then establish a bank roll. From that bank roll, establish a standard bet. You may deviate from your standard bet for what you consider an exceptional bet, but establish what constitutes an exceptional bet in advance. - 37 - 3) Never, never bet your whole bank roll on one game. If you bet your whole bank roll, and lose, your out of the game. 4) Understand your game and what it takes to win. Most professional gamblers, in whatever game, figure to win only a small percentage more often than they lose. This small percentage must be enough to both cover the house take and make a profit. 5) Many people become emotionally involved when placing bets. This gives players who can keep their emotions out of the game an advantage. Learn to remove yourself from the emotional side of football--at least while establishing your lines and bets. I would wish you good luck, but let's face it--luck has very little to do with it! - 38 - ╔════════════════════════════════╗ ║ Appendix A - Sports Book Cards ║ ╚════════════════════════════════╝ Sports Book Cards Pictured in Hard Copy Only A - 1 ╔════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ Appendix B - Version Changes & Convert ║ ╚════════════════════════════════════════╝ The following changes were made between the Pro Football Linemaker Version 1.0 and Version 2.1: 1) User color selection is now available. 2) The Main Menu has been changed and both the CALCPARA and the PRINTPFL programs are now available from the Menu. 3) The database storage method has been changed so that PFL data files can contain as many past games as desired. (Limited to the last two games between the same two opposing teams.) 4) The input screen has been changed to more closely parallel the order of the reporting columns in national newspapers. Also, the [F2] function key can now be used to accept the inputted stats. These changes and additions speed up data entry and reduces data entry errors. 5) A CONVERT program is included for those who have old Version 1.0 files they wish to convert to Version 2.1 compatible files. ============= CONVERT ============= The CONVERT program included on your version 2.1 disk will convert your old version 1.0 data files to version 2.1 compatible files. Because last years regular season database and an up-to-date database for this season are already included on the version 2.1 disk, you probably have little or no need for this conversion program. But if you do, here's how it works: 1) Type the start-up command CONVERT 2) Your screen will display: ENTER [Drive:Path/Filename.Ext] of OLD PFL File: 3) Enter the version 1.0 filename. 4) Your screen will display: Enter [Drive:Path/Filename.Ext] of NEW PFL File: B - 1 5) Enter a name for the new version 2.1 file that will be created. If you use the same name, the old version 1.0 file will be overwritten. 6) Your screen will display: WAIT! CONVERTING ........ 7) When finished converting, the screen will display something like this, depending on your own file names: REGSEASN.89 SUCCESSFULLY CONVERTED TO REGSEASN.89 B - 2 ╔═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║Appendix C - Pro Football Linemaker Bulletin Board System (PFL BBS)║ ╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝ If you plan on using the PFL BBS, we suggest you log onto the system, and become familiar with it, so you will be ready once the season begins. The system currently uses DataStorm's Procomm Plus (however, we may switch to a BBS program if usage increases). To address the BBS, you can use the shareware version of the same program, Procomm, or you may use your favorite communications program. During the season, we keep the BBS on line 24 hours a day. During the off season, when activity is light, we bring the system up only on weekends during the lower telephone rates (from approximately 5 PM PST Friday afternoon to 9 PM PST Sunday evening). If use increases, the up time will expand to weekdays. In any case, if the system is not up, you will not get an answer, so you will not be charged by the phone company for your call. ====================== Telephone Number ====================== The system phone number is: (714) 880-8030 However, all good things must come to and end. Our area is scheduled to go through an area code revision. We are currently scheduled to receive the new area code 909 on November 14, 1992. The number will not change but the area code will: (909) 880-8030. There is suppose to be a 9-month period where either area code will work. However we are not sure when that 9-month period begins and ends. So if 714 does not work, then 909 should. If an unexpected change in the number should take place, we will notify all registered and subscribed users. The bulletin board will also keep you informed. Registers and subscribed users, who change their addresses, may wish to notify us (via mail or the BBS). =============================================== Line Settings and File Transfer Protocols =============================================== Baud Rate: 2400, 1200, or 300 (the BBS will automatically detect your baud rate and adjust accordingly) Parity: None Data Bits: 8 Stop Bits: 1 File Transfer Protocol Options: Kermit, XModem, and many more available and selectable by user during file transfer. C - 1 ========================= Open/Closed System ========================= By "open" system, we mean the system is open to everyone and may be used by everyone. A "closed" system, is closed to the general public, but open to all registered and subscribed users via their passwords. The PFL BBS is opened immediately following the Super Bowl, and will not close until the first week of the regular season. When we place the regular season's first week's stat file on the BBS, we will close the system. (Even though it takes two or three weeks of stats to start getting projections). ================================================ Off Season - Open System Log on Procedures ================================================ The PFL BBS is open during off season and we encourage everyone to use and become acquainted with it--you do not have to be registered. You may also wish to practice downloading some files so you are familiar with your file transfer procedures before the start of the season. 1) Connect with (714) 880-8030 (area code scheduled to change to 909 on November 14, 1992) 2) The system will ask: First Name: Last Name: Enter your first and last name. It is important that you enter your names exactly the same each time. The system is not case sensitive, it sees upper and lower case letters as the same. But don't use Jim one time, and then James the next, or it will think you are two different people. 3) You will be asked to enter a password Enter a password: Please verify: Enter a password of your choice (not more than eight characters), you will be asked to verify (the first time you log on), which means for you to enter it again. You will then be allowed into the system. The next time you log on you must use the same password. Your own chosen password will be good until the season begins and the system becomes a closed system. At this time you must use your assigned password to enter the BBS. C - 2 ===================================================== During Season - Closed System Log on Procedures ===================================================== 1) After you register, or after you update your subscription to the PFL BBS, you will receive a new password. This password is to be used once the season begins and the system becomes a closed system. 2) With notice of your password will be your name. You must enter both your name and password exactly as on your notice to be allowed into the closed system. 3) The log on procedures are the then the same as with the above open system. ====================================== Downloading and Extracting Files ====================================== By selecting "F" for Files off the BBS menu (see below - "Bulletin Board Commands") you will get the directory of files available for downloading. This is much the same as a directory (DIR) DOS command. At a minimum you will see these files: PFL2_0.EXE CONVERT.EXE SEASON88.EXE SEASON89.EXE SEASON90.EXE RENEW.TXT Each of these files have been compressed (archived) to reduce the time they will take to download (except the subscription renewal form RENEW.TXT). By placing these files in this compressed format, you will be able to download weekly statistics files in less than one minute at 2400 baud and about one and one-half minutes at 1200 baud. Not bad, this shouldn't overload your phone bill. The program used to archive the files is LHARC. The files are self extracting, so you do not need any special program to extract them. You simply execute the file by typing its name, and the file will be extracted. For example, by typing: PFL2_0 You will extract the two files: PFL.EXE PFL.PAR Which is PFL Version 2.1 and its parameters file. C - 3 --CONVRT.EXE will extract to CONVERT.EXE. See Appendix B for information on the CONVERT program. --SEASON88.EXE will extract to SEASON88.PFL, the 1988 regular season statistics database. --SEASON89.EXE will extract to SEASON89.PFL, the 1989 regular season statistics database. --ETC. During the season you will see files similar to these: --WEEK0191.EXE --WEEK0291.EXE These are the current week's statistics files and will extract to a STATS.PFL database file for the week indicated. The first set of two numbers being the week of the regular season and the second, the year. Of course, each successive week's database file also includes the previous statistics. You should find an updated file, which includes Monday night's game, on the BBS by Wednesday morning. This gives us a full day (after the Monday night game) to enter the stats and get it on the BBS. Notes on Weekly Stat Files: --------------------------- 1) As mentioned before, it takes two or three weeks of stats before there is enough data to make any comparisons or projections. This depends of the current season's schedule and the schedule of the teams you are comparing. Even though they will not be of much use, we will make the current database available starting with the first week. 2) The weekly stat files you download are cumulative. In other words, the third week's file holds all data from week 1, week 2, and week 3; the four week's file from weeks 1, 2, 3, & 4, etc. So if you wanted to make projections for the 8th week, all you need is the 7th week stat file. 3) The stat files you download are no different than files that are entered manually. At any time, you can start manually keeping your stats file current by adding to the current database file using the stats in your newspaper. ============================= Bulletin Board Commands ============================= Every user is presented the following menu after successfully logging on (and after seeing any current news bulletins from the SYSOP): C - 4 ┌───────────────────────────────────┐ │ F)iles U)pload D)ownload │ │ H)elp T)ime C)hat G)oodbye │ │ R)ead mail L)eave mail │ └───────────────────────────────────┘ An available function is invoked by pressing the first letter of the name. No carriage return is needed. So to download, for example, just press <D>. Function Description CHAT: Sounds the speaker on the system operator (SYSOP) machine. Normally, however, a SYSOP will not be available for direct discussions and the user can abort the request by pressing Ctrl-C. DOWNLOAD: The user is prompted for a protocol to use and then for the specification of the file(s) to download from the host. When a valid file specification is entered, the message "Begin your ??????? transfer procedure" is issued and the host waits for the user to download the file(s) using the specified protocol. At this time you must execute your communications program's file downloading procedure. FILES: Prompts for a file specification (like DOS' DIR command) and displays a list of matching downloadable files. A user can cancel the file display by pressing Ctrl-C. GOODBYE: Terminates user. Use for leaving the BBS. HELP: Displays this help screen. A user can cancel the help display by pressing Ctrl-C. LEAVE MAIL: The user is prompted for the following: To: (the intended recipient of the mail) Re: (the subject of the mail) Private Mail(Y/N) (Y to limit viewing, N for public) The user is then placed in a line-at-a-time input mode which continues until an empty line is entered. When an empty line is entered, the user is prompted with: S)ave A)bort D)isplay C)ontinue ? Save: Append the message to the mailbase and return to the main menu. Abort: Erase the message and return to the main menu (after confirmation). C - 5 Display: Show any text which has been entered (using the same format as the Read Mail facility) and display this prompt again. Continue: Return to input mode. READ MAIL: The user is prompted to choose one of the following: F)orward read S)earch mail I)ndividual read Q)uit Forward read: Sequential multiple read. Prompts for the message number to begin displaying and begins to display all accessible messages starting with that number. Search mail: Selective sequential multiple read. Asks for a field to search, then a string to search for, and finally what message number to begin the search with. A display of all accessible messages which match the search criteria is then begun. Individual: Single message read. Asks which message to read and displays it if accessible. Quit: Return to the main menu. TIME: The time the user came on-line is displayed, followed by the current time. UPLOAD: The user is prompted for a protocol to use for the transfer. A file specification is then asked for, followed by a file description. The host then waits for the user to begin using the specified protocol to upload the file(s). Files will be reviewed by the SYSOP prior to making them available on the BBS. ========================================================= Reading and Leaving Messages with the Mail Function ========================================================= The PFL BBS Mail Function provides a convenient method for football fans to exchange ideas; ask questions on the operation of the PFL program, database, or BBS; and compare results of the prior week's or year's games. C - 6 Most discussions center around football, betting, specific teams and players, spreads, PFL, gambling strategies, etc. However, API makes no restrictions on what may be discussed. API trims old messages as needed. System Operator (SYSOP) ----------------------- Direct messages to the system operator as follows: To: SYSOP As previously discussed you may designate messages as private or public. Private messages to the SYSOP will be answered privately. Other fans may have the same or similar questions and keeping your questions public may help everyone. Open Questions/Discussions -------------------------- You may direct messages to everyone or a specific individual. We suggest you address open questions/discussion to FANS. For example: To: FANS Re: SUPER BOWL (you enter this information) Private Mail(Y/N)? N To: FANS From: JOE SIXPACK (the sytem displays this) Re: SUPER BOWL My PFL showed only a half-point difference between Buffalo and New York. When I left Southern California there was a six-point spread favoring Buffalo. By the time I got to Las Vegas it was seven. I usually wait for even bigger overlays, but it was the only game, and the last game. I couldn't pass it up. And didn't! Sending a Large Message (Uploading) ----------------------------------- If you have a long message (or file, program, etc.) you wish to prepare in advance, you may place it in an file and upload it with your file transfer protocol. This will save you having to enter the information on line. If you prepare a large message with your word processor, be sure you save/convert it to an ASCII file so it may be read by anyone. All uploaded files will be reviewed by us before making them available for downloading. We review files and programs for two reasons only. First, to ensure that do not have the same name as one of our stat files, which would overwrite it. Second, we scan each uploaded file for any viruses that may have unknowing attached a submission. C - 7 Then leave a message explaining the file. For example: To: FANS Re: OPEN CATEGORY Private Mail(Y/N)? N To: FANS From: JOE SIXPACK Re: OPEN CATEGORY I entered turnovers into the open category for 1990. If your interested, download my stats file named: TURN1990.PFL A self extracting archived version is in: TURN1990.EXE, it will extract to TURN1990.PFL. -- JOE C - 8